TY  - JOUR
AU  - Mo, Yuchang
AU  - Miao, Chunyu
AU  - Chen, Guangxuan
AU  - Gai, Tiantian
AU  - Wu, Wen
AU  - Gong, Yuhuan
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/10/01
TI  - Reliability Evaluation of Social Systems Against Cognitive Warfare: A Hybrid Approach Based on Extended Fault Tree and Multi-Valued Decision Diagram
JO  - ICCK Transactions on Systems Safety and Reliability
T2  - ICCK Transactions on Systems Safety and Reliability
JF  - ICCK Transactions on Systems Safety and Reliability
VL  - 2
IS  - 4
SP  - 220
EP  - 234
DO  - 10.62762/TSSR.2026.783316
UR  - https://www.icck.org/article/abs/TSSR.2026.783316
KW  - social system
KW  - cognitive warfare
KW  - reliability analysis
KW  - extended fault tree (EFT)
KW  - multi-valued decision diagram (MDD)
KW  - cascading failure
AB  - As an emerging non-traditional security threat, cognitive warfare undermines social systems by manipulating information dissemination, distorting cognitive consensus, and eroding social trust. The reliability of social systems against cognitive warfare reflects their ability to maintain core functions, resist cognitive infiltration, and restore social order. To quantitatively evaluate this reliability, this paper proposes a hybrid approach integrating the Extended Fault Tree (EFT) and Multi-Valued Decision Diagram (MDD). First, key failure paths and interdependencies are identified, including cascading failures among four core subsystems: information dissemination, cognitive consensus, social trust, and emergency response. Second, EFT models the logical relationships among cognitive attack sources, propagation nodes, and failure consequences, while multi-state nodes and cascade gates characterize graded failures and cascading effects. MDD is then employed to efficiently solve the complex logical model derived from EFT, balancing analytical accuracy and computational efficiency. An empirical case study of cognitive warfare response during a sudden public event verifies the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate that the hybrid approach provides quantitative decision support for optimizing social cognitive defense systems and offers a methodological reference for national cognitive security governance.
SN  - 3069-1087
PB  - Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge
LA  - English
ER  - 

@article{Mo2026Reliabilit,
  author = {Yuchang Mo and Chunyu Miao and Guangxuan Chen and Tiantian Gai and Wen Wu and Yuhuan Gong},
  title = {Reliability Evaluation of Social Systems Against Cognitive Warfare: A Hybrid Approach Based on Extended Fault Tree and Multi-Valued Decision Diagram},
  journal = {ICCK Transactions on Systems Safety and Reliability},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {2},
  number = {4},
  pages = {220-234},
  doi = {10.62762/TSSR.2026.783316},
  url = {https://www.icck.org/article/abs/TSSR.2026.783316},
  abstract = {As an emerging non-traditional security threat, cognitive warfare undermines social systems by manipulating information dissemination, distorting cognitive consensus, and eroding social trust. The reliability of social systems against cognitive warfare reflects their ability to maintain core functions, resist cognitive infiltration, and restore social order. To quantitatively evaluate this reliability, this paper proposes a hybrid approach integrating the Extended Fault Tree (EFT) and Multi-Valued Decision Diagram (MDD). First, key failure paths and interdependencies are identified, including cascading failures among four core subsystems: information dissemination, cognitive consensus, social trust, and emergency response. Second, EFT models the logical relationships among cognitive attack sources, propagation nodes, and failure consequences, while multi-state nodes and cascade gates characterize graded failures and cascading effects. MDD is then employed to efficiently solve the complex logical model derived from EFT, balancing analytical accuracy and computational efficiency. An empirical case study of cognitive warfare response during a sudden public event verifies the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed approach. The results demonstrate that the hybrid approach provides quantitative decision support for optimizing social cognitive defense systems and offers a methodological reference for national cognitive security governance.},
  keywords = {social system, cognitive warfare, reliability analysis, extended fault tree (EFT), multi-valued decision diagram (MDD), cascading failure},
  issn = {3069-1087},
  publisher = {Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge}
}