ICCK Transactions on Artificial Intelligence in Space
ISSN: pending (Online) | ISSN: pending (Print)
Email: [email protected]

Submit Manuscript
Edit a Special Issue

TY - JOUR AU - Gradvohl, André Leon S. PY - 2025 DA - 2025/12/13 TI - Solar Flare Forecasting: From Data-driven Towards Physics-informed Machine Learning Models JO - ICCK Transactions on Artificial Intelligence in Space T2 - ICCK Transactions on Artificial Intelligence in Space JF - ICCK Transactions on Artificial Intelligence in Space VL - 1 IS - 1 SP - 3 EP - 24 DO - 10.62762/TAIS.2025.793969 UR - https://www.icck.org/article/abs/TAIS.2025.793969 KW - solar flare KW - physics-informed machine learning KW - data analysis KW - machine learning AB - Solar flares are phenomena characterized by the sudden release of accumulated magnetic energy in active regions of the solar magnetosphere. Such liberation occurs through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Flares appear as intense glows across a broad spectrum, ranging from radio waves to X- or $\gamma$-rays, and last from a few minutes to a few hours. When electromagnetic radiation reaches Earth, it can damage orbiting technologies, disrupting activities that depend on these technologies. This scoping review examines the scientific approaches to solar flare forecasting, covering methods based on physical principles, data-driven approaches using Machine Learning, and their combination in hybrid models. The text highlights the features of each approach. It argues that hybrid models, which use both observational data and knowledge of the physical nature of solar flares, offer a promising strategy. These models, known as Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) models, improve accuracy, robustness, and interpretability. Key PIML strategies integrate prior physical knowledge, such as differential equations or conservation laws, by embedding them into neural network loss functions or utilizing tailored architectures. This integration supports PIML's use by enabling models that are physically plausible and less reliant on large datasets. Notably, reviewed studies show hybrid PIML models improve performance indicators, such as True Skill Statistic and False Alarm Rates, over data-driven methods, reinforcing their value for solar forecasting. SN - pending PB - Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge LA - English ER -
@article{Gradvohl2025Solar,
author = {André Leon S. Gradvohl},
title = {Solar Flare Forecasting: From Data-driven Towards Physics-informed Machine Learning Models},
journal = {ICCK Transactions on Artificial Intelligence in Space},
year = {2025},
volume = {1},
number = {1},
pages = {3-24},
doi = {10.62762/TAIS.2025.793969},
url = {https://www.icck.org/article/abs/TAIS.2025.793969},
abstract = {Solar flares are phenomena characterized by the sudden release of accumulated magnetic energy in active regions of the solar magnetosphere. Such liberation occurs through electromagnetic radiation and high-energy particles. Flares appear as intense glows across a broad spectrum, ranging from radio waves to X- or \$\gamma\$-rays, and last from a few minutes to a few hours. When electromagnetic radiation reaches Earth, it can damage orbiting technologies, disrupting activities that depend on these technologies. This scoping review examines the scientific approaches to solar flare forecasting, covering methods based on physical principles, data-driven approaches using Machine Learning, and their combination in hybrid models. The text highlights the features of each approach. It argues that hybrid models, which use both observational data and knowledge of the physical nature of solar flares, offer a promising strategy. These models, known as Physics-Informed Machine Learning (PIML) models, improve accuracy, robustness, and interpretability. Key PIML strategies integrate prior physical knowledge, such as differential equations or conservation laws, by embedding them into neural network loss functions or utilizing tailored architectures. This integration supports PIML's use by enabling models that are physically plausible and less reliant on large datasets. Notably, reviewed studies show hybrid PIML models improve performance indicators, such as True Skill Statistic and False Alarm Rates, over data-driven methods, reinforcing their value for solar forecasting.},
keywords = {solar flare, physics-informed machine learning, data analysis, machine learning},
issn = {pending},
publisher = {Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge}
}
ICCK Transactions on Artificial Intelligence in Space
ISSN: pending (Online) | ISSN: pending (Print)
Email: [email protected]
Portico
All published articles are preserved here permanently:
https://www.portico.org/publishers/icck/