An Analysis of Time Series Models for Predicting Global Rice Price
Article Information
Abstract
Rice plays a crucial role globally, as it is widely consumed across nations. Therefore, studying rice prices is vital, since fluctuations in the price can affect both its consumption and availability. This study analyzes time-series models using an international dataset. After preprocessing, the dataset comprises 71,856 samples and eight input features from six countries. The original dataset contained 300,816 rows and 23 columns. This study aims to predict rice inflation rates using time series models such as ARIMA, LSTM, and BiLSTM. The ARIMA model achieved the best combination of values (4,1,4)(0,0,0). Various statistical techniques that calculate inflation rates require expert knowledge and are time-consuming. However, with the advancement of intelligent computing and machine learning models, the rice inflation rate can now be predicted efficiently. These models play a vital role in managing unjustified surges in global rice prices.
Graphical Abstract
Keywords
Data Availability Statement
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
AI Use Statement
Ethical Approval and Consent to Participate
References
- Dawe, D., & Timmer, C. P. (2012). Why stable food prices are a good thing: Lessons from stabilizing rice prices in Asia. Global Food Security, 1(2), 127-133.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Theofilou, A., Nastis, S. A., Michailidis, A., Bournaris, T., & Mattas, K. (2025). Predicting prices of staple crops using machine learning: A systematic review of studies on wheat, corn, and rice. Sustainability, 17(12), 5456.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Headey, D., & Fan, S. (2008). Anatomy of a crisis: The causes and consequences of surging food prices. Agricultural Economics, 39(s1), 375-391.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Setivani, L., Handayani, H. H., & Geraldine, W. A. (2023, November). Rice Price Forecasting Using GridSearchCVand LSTM. In 2023 International Conference on Modeling & E-Information Research, Artificial Learning and Digital Applications (ICMERALDA) (pp. 127-131). IEEE.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Duyapat, C. (2025). Forecasting Philippine Rice Prices: Comparison of Traditional Time Series and Machine Learning Models. Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Studies, 6(6), 18-28.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Zaw, T., Oo, A. N., & Kyaw, S. S. (2020, November). Combination of ARMA and BPNN model to predict rice type and rice price. In 2020 International Conference on Advanced Information Technologies (ICAIT) (pp. 159-164). IEEE.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Yusup, M., Prasetyo, S. Y. J., & Wellem, T. (2024, August). Evaluation of prediction accuracy in ARIMA and LSTM algorithms for agricultural commodity prices. In 2024 3rd International Conference on Creative Communication and Innovative Technology (ICCIT) (pp. 1-7). IEEE.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Menhaj, M. H., & Kavoosi-Kalashami, M. (2022). Developing a hybrid forecasting system for agricultural commodity prices (case study: Thailand rice free on board price). Ci\^{encia Rural, 52(8), e20201128.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Mahawan, A., Jaiteang, S., Srijiranon, K., & Eiamkanitchat, N. (2022, February). Hybrid ARIMAX and LSTM model to predict rice export price in Thailand. In 2022 International Conference on Cybernetics and Innovations (ICCI) (pp. 1-6). IEEE.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Patil, A., Shah, D., Shah, A., & Kotecha, R. (2023). Forecasting prices of agricultural commodities using machine learning for global food security: Towards Sustainable Development Goal 2. International Journal of Engineering Trends and Technology, 71(12), 277--291.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Zhang, G. P. (2003). Time series forecasting using a hybrid ARIMA and neural network model. Neurocomputing, 50, 159-175.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Bhardwaj, S. P., Paul, R. K., Singh, D. R., & Singh, K. N. (2014). An Empirical Investigation of Arima and Garch Models in Agricultural Price Forecasting. Economic Affairs, 59(3), 415-428. http://doi.org/10.5958/0976-4666.2014.00009.6
[Google Scholar] - Menculini, L., Marini, A., Proietti, M., Garinei, A., Bozza, A., Moretti, C., & Marconi, M. (2021). Comparing prophet and deep learning to ARIMA in forecasting wholesale food prices. Forecasting, 3(3), 644-662.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Valera, H. G., Balié, J., & Magrini, E. (2022). Is rice price a major source of inflation in the Philippines? A panel data analysis. Applied Economics Letters, 29(16), 1528-1532.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Ulussever, T., Ertuğrul, H. M., Kılıç Depren, S., Kartal, M. T., & Depren, Ö. (2023). Estimation of impacts of global factors on world food prices: a comparison of machine learning algorithms and time series econometric models. Foods, 12(4), 873.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Mgale, Y. J., Yan, Y., & Timothy, S. (2021). A comparative study of ARIMA and holt-winters exponential smoothing models for rice price forecasting in Tanzania. Open Access Library Journal, 8(5), 1-9.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Kontopoulou, V. I., Panagopoulos, A. D., Kakkos, I., & Matsopoulos, G. K. (2023). A review of ARIMA vs. machine learning approaches for time series forecasting in data driven networks. Future Internet, 15(8), 255.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Ray, S., Lama, A., Mishra, P., Biswas, T., Das, S. S., & Gurung, B. (2023). An ARIMA-LSTM model for predicting volatile agricultural price series with random forest technique. Applied Soft Computing, 149, 110939.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Sanusi, O. I., Safi, S. K., Adeeko, O., & Tabash, M. I. (2022). Forecasting agricultural commodity price using different models: a case study of widely consumed grains in Nigeria. Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, 8(2), 124--140.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Tule, M. K., Salisu, A. A., & Chiemeke, C. C. (2019). Can agricultural commodity prices predict Nigeria's inflation?. Journal of Commodity Markets, 16, 100087.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Murugesan, R., Mishra, E., & Krishnan, A. H. (2022). Forecasting agricultural commodities prices using deep learning-based models: basic LSTM, bi-LSTM, stacked LSTM, CNN LSTM, and convolutional LSTM. International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Management and Informatics, 8(3), 242-277.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Ghazali, A. A., Passarella, R., & Yamani, Z. Forecasting Indonesian food price inflation with multivariate time series and machine learning approaches. Computers and Informatics, (Advanced Online Publication), 46-57.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar] - Siami-Namini, S., Tavakoli, N., & Namin, A. S. (2019, December). The performance of LSTM and BiLSTM in forecasting time series. In 2019 IEEE International conference on big data (Big Data) (pp. 3285-3292). IEEE.
[CrossRef] [Google Scholar]
Cited By (3)
-
Shubhani Aggarwal, Arzoo Miglani, Norah Saleh Alghamdi, Gaurav Dhiman. Resilient and decentralized demand-side management in smart grids using blockchain.
Scientific Reports, 2026 , 16 (1).
[CrossRef] -
Zhongsheng Tang, Qiang Huang, Liangyi Yang, Jingbo Xiang, Xianfeng Ye. Adaptive pedestrian detection in resource-constrained dynamic crowds via hierarchical occlusion-aware reasoning.
Pattern Recognition, 2026 , 179 .
[CrossRef] -
Mengyun Wang, Manru Xun, Qinglin Yun. Fine-Grained Human Action Recognition Via Laban Movement Analysis and Attentive Bi-LSTM.
International Journal of Pattern Recognition and Artificial Intelligence, 2026 .
[CrossRef]
Cite This Article
TY - JOUR AU - Arya, Suraj AU - Kasana, Singara Singh PY - 2026 DA - 2026/03/23 TI - An Analysis of Time Series Models for Predicting Global Rice Price JO - ICCK Transactions on Machine Intelligence T2 - ICCK Transactions on Machine Intelligence JF - ICCK Transactions on Machine Intelligence VL - 2 IS - 3 SP - 116 EP - 126 DO - 10.62762/TMI.2025.272892 UR - https://www.icck.org/article/abs/TMI.2025.272892 KW - machine learning KW - time series analysis KW - global rice price prediction KW - ARIMA KW - LSTM KW - BiLSTM AB - Rice plays a crucial role globally, as it is widely consumed across nations. Therefore, studying rice prices is vital, since fluctuations in the price can affect both its consumption and availability. This study analyzes time-series models using an international dataset. After preprocessing, the dataset comprises 71,856 samples and eight input features from six countries. The original dataset contained 300,816 rows and 23 columns. This study aims to predict rice inflation rates using time series models such as ARIMA, LSTM, and BiLSTM. The ARIMA model achieved the best combination of values (4,1,4)(0,0,0). Various statistical techniques that calculate inflation rates require expert knowledge and are time-consuming. However, with the advancement of intelligent computing and machine learning models, the rice inflation rate can now be predicted efficiently. These models play a vital role in managing unjustified surges in global rice prices. SN - 3068-7403 PB - Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge LA - English ER -
@article{Arya2026An,
author = {Suraj Arya and Singara Singh Kasana},
title = {An Analysis of Time Series Models for Predicting Global Rice Price},
journal = {ICCK Transactions on Machine Intelligence},
year = {2026},
volume = {2},
number = {3},
pages = {116-126},
doi = {10.62762/TMI.2025.272892},
url = {https://www.icck.org/article/abs/TMI.2025.272892},
abstract = {Rice plays a crucial role globally, as it is widely consumed across nations. Therefore, studying rice prices is vital, since fluctuations in the price can affect both its consumption and availability. This study analyzes time-series models using an international dataset. After preprocessing, the dataset comprises 71,856 samples and eight input features from six countries. The original dataset contained 300,816 rows and 23 columns. This study aims to predict rice inflation rates using time series models such as ARIMA, LSTM, and BiLSTM. The ARIMA model achieved the best combination of values (4,1,4)(0,0,0). Various statistical techniques that calculate inflation rates require expert knowledge and are time-consuming. However, with the advancement of intelligent computing and machine learning models, the rice inflation rate can now be predicted efficiently. These models play a vital role in managing unjustified surges in global rice prices.},
keywords = {machine learning, time series analysis, global rice price prediction, ARIMA, LSTM, BiLSTM},
issn = {3068-7403},
publisher = {Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge}
}
Publisher's Note
ICCK stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and Permissions
Portico