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Projecting the Potential Distribution of Pinus Taiwanensis Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling in Biomod2
Research Article | Published: 29 August 2025
Digital Intelligence in Agriculture Volume 1, Issue 1, 2025: 35-46
Volume 1, Issue 1, Digital Intelligence in Agriculture
Volume 1, Issue 1, 2025
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Digital Intelligence in Agriculture, Volume 1, Issue 1, 2025: 35-46

Open Access | Research Article | 29 August 2025
Projecting the Potential Distribution of Pinus Taiwanensis Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling in Biomod2
by
Mengli Zhou Mengli Zhou 1
Yuhui Zhang Yuhui Zhang 1
Ning Zhang Ning Zhang 2
Haotian Guo Haotian Guo 3
Chuanchuan Fang Chuanchuan Fang 4
Dongfeng Yan Dongfeng Yan 1
Fang Guo Fang Guo 1 *
1 College of Forestry, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450046, China
2 Henan Yuanzhi Forestry Planning and Design Co., Ltd, Zhengzhou 450003, China
3 College of Environment and Resources Sciences and College of Carbon Neutrality, Zhejiang Agriculture and Forestry University, Hangzhou 311300, China
4 College of Forestry, Beijing Forestry University, Beijing 100083, China
* Corresponding Author: Fang Guo, [email protected]
DOI: 10.62762/DIA.2025.271459
Received: 14 August 2025, Accepted: 22 August 2025, Published: 29 August 2025  
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Abstract
The continuous rise in global atmospheric carbon dioxide has profoundly altered climate patterns and the spatiotemporal balance of hydrothermal conditions at regional scales. Understanding species’ responses to climatic factors is thus critical for biodiversity conservation. This study focuses on Pinus taiwanensis, analyzing changes in its suitable habitat using distribution data and environmental variables. Employing the biomod2 ensemble model, potential habitats were predicted under three climate scenarios (SSPs126, SSPs370, SSPs585) for the present, 2050, and 2090. Results show: (1) Model performance is excellent (AUC > 0.9, TSS > 0.8). (2) Temperature-related factors (isothermality, diurnal range) play dominant roles, followed by precipitation. (3) Future climate changes may lead to moderate habitat expansion. (4) The centroid of suitable habitat is projected to shift northeastward, with higher probability of a northwestward shift. (5) The SSPs585 scenario shows the greatest deviation from the current climate, with diurnal range as the least similar variable in 2050 and isothermality in 2090. In conclusion, climate change will reshape the potential distribution of Pinus taiwanensis, with habitat dynamics driven by the combined effects of dominant and secondary environmental factors.
Graphical Abstract
Projecting the Potential Distribution of Pinus Taiwanensis Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling in Biomod2
Keywords
biomod2 model
pinus taiwanensis
climate change
potential habitat suitability
Data Availability Statement
Data will be made available on request.
Funding
This work was supported by the Henan Provincial Key Research, Development, and Promotion Special Project (Science and Technology Tackling) under Grant 242102320245 and 2025 Henan Provincial Natural Science Foundation Project (Youth Science Fund Project) under Grant 252300420682.
Conflicts of Interest
Ning Zhang is an employee of Henan Yuanzhi Forestry Planning and Design Co., Ltd, Zhengzhou 450003, China.
Ethical Approval and Consent to Participate
Not applicable.
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Cite This Article
APA Style
Zhou, M., Zhang, Y., Zhang, N., Guo, H., Fang, C., Yan, D., & Guo, F. (2025). Projecting the Potential Distribution of Pinus Taiwanensis Under Climate Change Using Ensemble Modeling in Biomod2. Digital Intelligence in Agriculture, 1(1), 35–46. https://doi.org/10.62762/DIA.2025.271459
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