TY  - JOUR
AU  - Pippal, Sarita
AU  - Ranga, Ajay
PY  - 2026
DA  - 2026/05/28
TI  - Social Change and Escalation of Crime: A Statistical Study of Delhi $vs$ India (2010-2020)
JO  - Journal of Social Systems and Policy Analysis
T2  - Journal of Social Systems and Policy Analysis
JF  - Journal of Social Systems and Policy Analysis
VL  - 3
IS  - 3
SP  - 109
EP  - 120
DO  - 10.62762/JSSPA.2026.887509
UR  - https://www.icck.org/article/abs/JSSPA.2026.887509
KW  - social change
KW  - crime escalation
KW  - Delhi
KW  - inequality
KW  - urbanization
KW  - statistical analysis
AB  - Rapid social transformation in metropolitan regions has significantly reshaped crime dynamics, particularly in large urban centers such as Delhi. Understanding whether crime escalation reflects structural social change or random fluctuation is crucial for policy formulation. This study investigates the relationship between social transformation and crime escalation in Delhi within the broader national context of India over the period 2010-2020. The analysis employs a quantitative time-series and econometric framework, including trend analysis, regression modeling, correlation, elasticity estimation, and structural diagnostics. Secondary data are obtained from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), Delhi Economic Surveys, and related official statistical sources. The findings reveal a strong and statistically significant upward trend in crime, with Delhi exhibiting a higher escalation rate than the national average. High correlation indicates synchronized national and metropolitan crime dynamics, while elasticity estimates greater than unity suggest that Delhi responds more than proportionally to national changes. Robustness diagnostics confirm that this pattern is stable and not driven by nonlinearity, structural breaks, or volatility. The results suggest that crime escalation is a structurally embedded outcome of rapid social transformation, with metropolitan concentration amplifying national trends. These findings highlight the need for integrated socio-economic and urban policy interventions that address both structural drivers and city-specific vulnerabilities.
SN  - 3068-5540
PB  - Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge
LA  - English
ER  - 

@article{Pippal2026Social,
  author = {Sarita Pippal and Ajay Ranga},
  title = {Social Change and Escalation of Crime: A Statistical Study of Delhi \$vs\$ India (2010-2020)},
  journal = {Journal of Social Systems and Policy Analysis},
  year = {2026},
  volume = {3},
  number = {3},
  pages = {109-120},
  doi = {10.62762/JSSPA.2026.887509},
  url = {https://www.icck.org/article/abs/JSSPA.2026.887509},
  abstract = {Rapid social transformation in metropolitan regions has significantly reshaped crime dynamics, particularly in large urban centers such as Delhi. Understanding whether crime escalation reflects structural social change or random fluctuation is crucial for policy formulation. This study investigates the relationship between social transformation and crime escalation in Delhi within the broader national context of India over the period 2010-2020. The analysis employs a quantitative time-series and econometric framework, including trend analysis, regression modeling, correlation, elasticity estimation, and structural diagnostics. Secondary data are obtained from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB), Delhi Economic Surveys, and related official statistical sources. The findings reveal a strong and statistically significant upward trend in crime, with Delhi exhibiting a higher escalation rate than the national average. High correlation indicates synchronized national and metropolitan crime dynamics, while elasticity estimates greater than unity suggest that Delhi responds more than proportionally to national changes. Robustness diagnostics confirm that this pattern is stable and not driven by nonlinearity, structural breaks, or volatility. The results suggest that crime escalation is a structurally embedded outcome of rapid social transformation, with metropolitan concentration amplifying national trends. These findings highlight the need for integrated socio-economic and urban policy interventions that address both structural drivers and city-specific vulnerabilities.},
  keywords = {social change, crime escalation, Delhi, inequality, urbanization, statistical analysis},
  issn = {3068-5540},
  publisher = {Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge}
}