A Decision Support System for Reverse Logistics Network Design: Integrating Multi-Factorial Forecasting of Solar Panel End-of-Life Assets
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Abstract
The rapid global deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology presents a significant and often overlooked challenge: the effective management of end-of-life (EoL) solar panels. This issue is particularly acute in developing and emerging economies, where established reverse logistics infrastructure is often lacking. A critical limitation in current academic literature is the oversimplified forecasting of EoL waste streams, which fails to account for the dynamic interplay of socio-economic, policy, and environmental variables. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel decision support system (DSS) for the design of a sustainable reverse logistics network. Our system uniquely integrates a hybrid, multi-factorial forecasting model combining a SARIMAX time series approach with a Gradient Boosting Regressor to provide a robust prediction of waste volume. The output of this predictive engine dynamically informs a multi objective, mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model, which optimizes the network design to simultaneously minimize economic costs and environmental impacts. Our findings demonstrate that this integrated framework offers a methodologically more realistic and adaptable approach for strategic planning than existing models, as validated through simulated scenarios. Our study provides an actionable blueprint for policymakers and industry leaders to proactively build a resilient and circular economy for a sustainable energy future.
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References
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Cite This Article
TY - JOUR AU - Hussain, Syed Amer AU - Hussain, Sayed Akif AU - Hussain, Syed Atif AU - Raza, Kumail AU - Imran, Muhammad AU - Komal, Asma PY - 2026 DA - 2026/01/07 TI - A Decision Support System for Reverse Logistics Network Design: Integrating Multi-Factorial Forecasting of Solar Panel End-of-Life Assets JO - ICCK Transactions on Emerging Topics in Artificial Intelligence T2 - ICCK Transactions on Emerging Topics in Artificial Intelligence JF - ICCK Transactions on Emerging Topics in Artificial Intelligence VL - 3 IS - 1 SP - 33 EP - 44 DO - 10.62762/TETAI.2025.782328 UR - https://www.icck.org/article/abs/TETAI.2025.782328 KW - reverse logistics KW - decision support system KW - solar panel waste KW - multi-objective optimization KW - multifactorial forecasting KW - sustainable supply chain AB - The rapid global deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology presents a significant and often overlooked challenge: the effective management of end-of-life (EoL) solar panels. This issue is particularly acute in developing and emerging economies, where established reverse logistics infrastructure is often lacking. A critical limitation in current academic literature is the oversimplified forecasting of EoL waste streams, which fails to account for the dynamic interplay of socio-economic, policy, and environmental variables. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel decision support system (DSS) for the design of a sustainable reverse logistics network. Our system uniquely integrates a hybrid, multi-factorial forecasting model combining a SARIMAX time series approach with a Gradient Boosting Regressor to provide a robust prediction of waste volume. The output of this predictive engine dynamically informs a multi objective, mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model, which optimizes the network design to simultaneously minimize economic costs and environmental impacts. Our findings demonstrate that this integrated framework offers a methodologically more realistic and adaptable approach for strategic planning than existing models, as validated through simulated scenarios. Our study provides an actionable blueprint for policymakers and industry leaders to proactively build a resilient and circular economy for a sustainable energy future. SN - 3068-6652 PB - Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge LA - English ER -
@article{Hussain2026A,
author = {Syed Amer Hussain and Sayed Akif Hussain and Syed Atif Hussain and Kumail Raza and Muhammad Imran and Asma Komal},
title = {A Decision Support System for Reverse Logistics Network Design: Integrating Multi-Factorial Forecasting of Solar Panel End-of-Life Assets},
journal = {ICCK Transactions on Emerging Topics in Artificial Intelligence},
year = {2026},
volume = {3},
number = {1},
pages = {33-44},
doi = {10.62762/TETAI.2025.782328},
url = {https://www.icck.org/article/abs/TETAI.2025.782328},
abstract = {The rapid global deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) technology presents a significant and often overlooked challenge: the effective management of end-of-life (EoL) solar panels. This issue is particularly acute in developing and emerging economies, where established reverse logistics infrastructure is often lacking. A critical limitation in current academic literature is the oversimplified forecasting of EoL waste streams, which fails to account for the dynamic interplay of socio-economic, policy, and environmental variables. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel decision support system (DSS) for the design of a sustainable reverse logistics network. Our system uniquely integrates a hybrid, multi-factorial forecasting model combining a SARIMAX time series approach with a Gradient Boosting Regressor to provide a robust prediction of waste volume. The output of this predictive engine dynamically informs a multi objective, mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model, which optimizes the network design to simultaneously minimize economic costs and environmental impacts. Our findings demonstrate that this integrated framework offers a methodologically more realistic and adaptable approach for strategic planning than existing models, as validated through simulated scenarios. Our study provides an actionable blueprint for policymakers and industry leaders to proactively build a resilient and circular economy for a sustainable energy future.},
keywords = {reverse logistics, decision support system, solar panel waste, multi-objective optimization, multifactorial forecasting, sustainable supply chain},
issn = {3068-6652},
publisher = {Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge}
}
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