Abstract
Accurate forecasting of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is crucial for sustainable water resource management and precision agriculture. The present study evaluates three ETo prediction methods: Random Forest (RF), Cartesian Genetic Programming (CGP), and Convolutional Neural Network-Graphics Processing Unit (CNN-GPU) across time intervals of 1 to 364 days. Using dispersion analysis (scatter/violin plots) and accuracy metrics (RMSE, MAE, R^2, SI), it was seen that the RF and CNN-GPU models consistently outperform CGP, particularly at extended horizons. At 364 days, CNN-GPU achieved the highest accuracy (RMSE: 0.678 mm/day, R^2: 0.874), while RF maintained robust performance (RMSE: 0.683 mm/day, R^2: 0.872) and minimal dispersion (SI: 0.244--0.278). In contrast, CGP exhibited slightly higher error indices (RMSE: 0.702mm/day) and greater variability. Statistical validation via t-tests, F-tests, and ANOVA revealed significant differences in performance, especially at longer lags (p < 0.05), with CNN-GPU often showing superior accuracy. Time-series analyses further confirmed that RF and CNN-GPU effectively capture seasonal ETo trends, while CGP struggles with increased lag.
Data Availability Statement
Data will be made available on request.
Funding
This work was supported without any funding.
Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
Ethical Approval and Consent to Participate
Not applicable.
Cite This Article
APA Style
Sadeghzadeh, M., Shiri, J., & Karimi, S. (2025). Performance Evaluation of ETo Prediction Methods: Dispersion Analysis and Accuracy Criteria Across Time Intervals. ICCK Transactions on Emerging Topics in Artificial Intelligence, 2(3), 182–191. https://doi.org/10.62762/TETAI.2025.125348
Publisher's Note
ICCK stays neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and Permissions

Copyright © 2025 by the Author(s). Published by Institute of Central Computation and Knowledge. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made.