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Volume 2, Issue 4, ICCK Transactions on Emerging Topics in Artificial Intelligence
Volume 2, Issue 4, 2025
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ICCK Transactions on Emerging Topics in Artificial Intelligence, Volume 2, Issue 4, 2025: 182-191

Open Access | Research Article | 15 September 2025
Performance Evaluation of ETo Prediction Methods: Dispersion Analysis and Accuracy Criteria Across Time Intervals
1 Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
2 Water Engineering and Science Research Institute (WESRI), University of Tabriz, Tabriz, Iran
* Corresponding Author: Mostafa Sadeghzadeh, [email protected]
Received: 06 May 2025, Accepted: 25 August 2025, Published: 15 September 2025  
Abstract
Accurate forecasting of reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is crucial for sustainable water resource management and precision agriculture. The present study evaluates three ETo prediction methods: Random Forest (RF), Cartesian Genetic Programming (CGP), and Convolutional Neural Network-Graphics Processing Unit (CNN-GPU) across time intervals of 1 to 364 days. Using dispersion analysis (scatter/violin plots) and accuracy metrics (RMSE, MAE, R^2, SI), it was seen that the RF and CNN-GPU models consistently outperform CGP, particularly at extended horizons. At 364 days, CNN-GPU achieved the highest accuracy (RMSE: 0.678 mm/day, R^2: 0.874), while RF maintained robust performance (RMSE: 0.683 mm/day, R^2: 0.872) and minimal dispersion (SI: 0.244--0.278). In contrast, CGP exhibited slightly higher error indices (RMSE: 0.702mm/day) and greater variability. Statistical validation via t-tests, F-tests, and ANOVA revealed significant differences in performance, especially at longer lags (p < 0.05), with CNN-GPU often showing superior accuracy. Time-series analyses further confirmed that RF and CNN-GPU effectively capture seasonal ETo trends, while CGP struggles with increased lag.

Graphical Abstract
Performance Evaluation of ETo Prediction Methods: Dispersion Analysis and Accuracy Criteria Across Time Intervals

Keywords
ETo prediction
random forest
CNN-GPU
genetic programming
dispersion analysis
time intervals

Data Availability Statement
Data will be made available on request.

Funding
This work was supported without any funding.

Conflicts of Interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Ethical Approval and Consent to Participate
Not applicable.

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Cite This Article
APA Style
Sadeghzadeh, M., Shiri, J., & Karimi, S. (2025). Performance Evaluation of ETo Prediction Methods: Dispersion Analysis and Accuracy Criteria Across Time Intervals. ICCK Transactions on Emerging Topics in Artificial Intelligence, 2(3), 182–191. https://doi.org/10.62762/TETAI.2025.125348

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